Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Dengue (AGED)
Large increases in dengue incidence are often associated with shifts in the predominant circulating serotypes and/or genotypes, but the mechanisms that drive these shifts are not well understood. The goal of the AGED project is to characterize the antigenic relationships between dengue viruses isolated in Thailand over the last 25 years using the novel technique of antigenic cartography. We seek to characterize changes in dengue antigenicity and determine whether an individual's antigenic profile is predictive of their risk of dengue disease using samples from a cohort study in Bangkok. We will build and compare a suite of time-series models that incorporate antigenic and genetic diversity and fit them to observed patterns of dengue incidence in Thailand in order to forecast future incidence, prepare surveillance systems, and better understand drivers of individual risk.